Crude oil prices weaken, pressured by rise in US crude inventories

Oil prices have experienced a sharp decline due to an increase in inventories in the US and concerns about a potential trade war between China and the US. Despite President Donald Trump's attempts to halt Iranian crude exports, market concerns have prevailed. The price of Brent crude oil for April 2025 delivery decreased by 0.51% to $75.81 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for March 2025 delivery weakened by 0.36% to $72.44 per barrel. The introduction of tariffs on oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal imports from the US by China, in response to US levies on Chinese exports, led to a brief decline in WTI prices to their lowest level since 31 December. However, crude oil prices rebounded when Trump reintroduced the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. On Wednesday, the market experienced further fluctuations due to higher-than-expected US crude oil inventories.

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Despite the ongoing situation, China has continued to implement export controls on key minerals

In response to the recently imposed tariffs by the US, China has announced a decision to restrict exports of five metals used in various industries, including defence and clean energy. This strategic move is part of China's efforts to leverage its leading position in mining and processing critical minerals. The restrictions are not tantamount to outright bans on exports and are limited in scope. Instead, they are part of a package of tariffs and policies introduced by China after an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports to the US was implemented. The products requiring export licenses include tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum-related items, which find use in a range of applications from solar panels to artillery shells. For instance, China will limit the exports of specific types of molybdenum powder utilized in missile components.

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Oil exports fall, OPEC+ to increase supply from April

Global seaborne oil shipments fell significantly in January 2025, mainly due to lower shipments from Mexico and Brazil. This decline, which marks the second consecutive month of decline, underlines the volatility of global oil supplies. The ongoing tariff war between the United States and China, the two largest oil consumers, appears to have influenced this trend. Bloomberg shipping and industry tracking data showed a 600,000 barrel per day drop in oil shipments from Brazil and Mexico. This contributed to an overall decline in global seaborne oil exports of 1.3 million barrels per day. Global oil shipments peaked at 40 million barrels per day in November, but have since fallen to 37.81 million barrels per day. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a surplus of 725,000 barrels per day by 2025. In addition, other countries such as Algeria, Iraq and West Africa, including Kazakhstan, have also seen significant declines in oil exports, while Russia's flagship Urals oil has seen an increase in flows. Separately, OPEC+ recently agreed to gradually increase oil production from April and decided not to rely on the US government's EIA data to monitor production and supply.

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