International News 19 June 2025
-
Oil Prices Surge 4% Amid Escalating Iran-Israel Conflict and Geopolitical Tensions
Global oil prices rose over 4% on Tuesday (June 17) following intensifying military conflict between Iran and Israel, despite no significant disruption to key oil and gas infrastructure. Brent crude closed up US$3.22 (+4.4%) to US$76.45 per barrel, while WTI gained US$3.07 (+4.28%) to US$74.84 per barrel.The spike followed Israeli airstrikes that ignited a fire at Iran’s South Pars gas field and struck the Shahran oil depot. A collision between two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns about potential supply disruptions through one of the world’s most critical maritime oil routes.Although analysts deem the risk of actual supply blockage low, markets have priced in a geopolitical risk premium of about US$10 per barrel. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down global oil demand by 20,000 barrels per day and raised supply expectations, hinting at a potential oversupply. Investors are also focused on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision amid heightened global uncertainty.
Corporate Income Tax Collection Rises Slightly in May 2025, Driven by Mining and Banking Sectors
Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance reported that corporate income tax (PPh Badan) collection reached Rp26.06 trillion in May 2025, a modest increase of 0.96% compared to Rp25.81 trillion in May 2024. Deputy Finance Minister Anggito Abimanyu explained that this growth reflects healthy corporate profitability in the previous fiscal year, following the annual tax filing season and the start of regular installment payments.Furthermore, from March to May 2025, installment payments saw stronger growth of 8%, totaling Rp63.8 trillion. This increase was supported by improved performance in sectors such as copper ore mining, banking, fuel and machinery wholesale trade, and other food industries.
BI Expected to Hold Benchmark Rate at 5.5% Amid External Pressures and Tepid Credit Growth
Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% during the June 17–18 Board of Governors Meeting. According to economist Teuku Riefky from LPEM FEB UI, although BI cut its policy rate by 25 basis points last month, there has been no significant improvement in credit growth. Meanwhile, inflation in May eased following the seasonal Eid-related spike in April.Riefky emphasized that BI should focus on monitoring the transmission and effectiveness of its recent rate cut while remaining cautious of external risks. These include the recent, yet potentially temporary, appreciation of the Rupiah, renewed trade tensions following President Trump’s statements, and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel. Such uncertainties could reduce capital inflows into Indonesia and push investors toward safe-haven assets.
https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/lpem-feb-ui-proyeksi-bi-pertahankan-suku-bunga-acuan-di-level-55