International News 05 January 2026
-
Strong Start to 2026 Masks Growing Risks of “Illusory Diversification”
Global markets opened 2026 on a strong footing, extending the broad-based rally seen throughout 2025. Stocks, bonds, credit, and commodities all advanced together last year, supported by AI-driven investment, easing inflation, and accommodative central bank policies. Global equities gained around 23%, U.S. stocks rose roughly 18% for a third straight double-digit year, and global bonds climbed nearly 7% as the Federal Reserve cut rates three times. Commodities also rose about 11%, led by record-high gold prices. This rare cross-asset alignment delivered the strongest multi-asset performance since 2009 and pushed global financial conditions close to their loosest levels of the year. However, investors and strategists warn that the same synchronization that boosted returns has also weakened true diversification. With assets moving in the same direction, portfolios may be more fragile than they appear if key drivers—AI optimism, resilient growth, and loose monetary policy—lose momentum. While consensus expectations for 2026 remain positive, many argue that elevated valuations already reflect much of the good news, implying lower forward returns. Inflation remains the main risk, particularly if energy prices surge or policy missteps occur. As BlackRock’s Jean Boivin noted, 2025 highlighted the “illusion of diversification,” underscoring that repeating last year’s outsized gains will be far more challenging.
U.S. Arrests Venezuela’s President Maduro, Raising Fears of Power Vacuum
The United States carried out a military operation in Venezuela on Saturday, January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and transferring him to U.S. custody, according to statements by President Donald Trump. Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said Washington would temporarily oversee Venezuela to ensure an “orderly and safe transition,” arguing that Maduro’s removal was necessary to protect the Venezuelan people. Maduro was reportedly apprehended near a safe house and flown to New York, where he is expected to appear in federal court on charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy. U.S. officials have not clarified how Washington would govern Venezuela, and American forces do not currently control the country. The arrest triggered sharp political reactions inside Venezuela. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez condemned the move as a kidnapping and demanded Maduro’s immediate release, insisting he remains the country’s legitimate president. While streets remained largely calm with limited pro-Maduro demonstrations, reactions among citizens were mixed, ranging from relief to uncertainty. Analysts warn that Maduro’s removal could create a dangerous power vacuum, especially as the U.S. has not identified a clear local partner and has ruled out cooperation with prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado. The situation has heightened concerns over regional stability and the risk of deeper U.S. military involvement in Venezuela.
Venezuela’s Oil Operations Continue Despite U.S. Actions and Political Shock
Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA continues to operate its oil production and refining facilities normally, with no reported damage from recent U.S. actions aimed at removing President Nicolás Maduro, according to sources familiar with operations. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that American forces had captured Maduro following months of pressure over alleged drug trafficking and questions over the legitimacy of his rule. While most oil facilities remain unaffected, La Guaira port near Caracas reportedly suffered severe damage, though it is not used for oil exports. U.S. measures have nevertheless hit Venezuela’s oil exports hard. A blockade on oil tankers and the seizure of two crude cargoes caused exports to plunge last month to roughly half of the 950,000 barrels per day shipped in November. Many shipowners diverted vessels away from Venezuelan waters, leading to a rapid buildup of crude and fuel inventories at PDVSA. To avoid cutting production or refinery runs, the company slowed loadings and stored oil on tankers, while still coping with lingering disruptions from a December cyberattack that forced PDVSA to rely on manual systems to keep operations running.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/produksi-minyak-venezuela-tetap-normal-usai-serangan-as