KSI Morning Report 19 August 2026

August 19, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 19 August 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GLOBAL MARKETS PRESSURED BY RISING YIELDS, JCI STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF BI RATE DECISION US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday's trading (08/18/26), with selling in the US bond market as the main pressure on stocks, particularly the yield-sensitive tech sector. S&P 500 fell 0.69% to 7,691.76, Dow Jones Industrial Average weakened 0.22% to 53,343.40, while Nasdaq Composite corrected the most, down 1.33% to 26,289.71. After strengthening throughout August, the market began facing pressure from rising long-term yields and oil prices. INDONESIA: The government is targeting 2027 tax revenue of Rp2,591.4 trillion, up 12.1% from the 2026 outlook, while tax expenditure is projected to reach Rp632 trillion, up 9.6%. The slowing growth in tax expenditure is considered not a reflection of reduced incentives, but rather a sharpening of incentive targeting to be more focused, measurable, and time-bound. On the fiscal side, the 2027 draft state budget (RAPBN) deficit is targeted at Rp671.2 trillion, or 2.40% of GDP, indicating fairly strong fiscal consolidation. - In addition, the government is expected to rely more on tax extensification and intensification to pursue an additional Rp280.6 trillion in revenue in 2027 without raising tax rates. Strengthening Coretax based on data analytics, expanding the tax base, and technology-based oversight could potentially increase the frequency of data requests, audits, and tax disputes, raising business compliance costs. The 6% economic growth target is also considered fairly ambitious, with CORE projecting a more realistic growth range of 5.3%-5.6%. JCI closed up 0.75% at the 6,449.83 level on Tuesday's trading (08/18), moving in a range of 6,448.26 – 6,490.65 throughout the session. Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp689.26 billion in the Regular Market and a net sell of Rp355.17 billion across all markets. Foreign fund inflows were mainly directed into ANTM, BBCA, INET, INDY, and PSAB, while the largest selling pressure was recorded in ISAT, BBRI, DSSA, TPIA, and ASII. Meanwhile, the Rupiah weakened slightly to around Rp17,850 per US dollar on Tuesday after sluggish trading the previous session. Market sentiment remained cautious as Bank Indonesia began its two-day policy meeting, with the interest rate decision to be announced today. Technically, JCI still maintained its short-term bullish trend and stood above the EMA10 (6,347.02), EMA20 (6,283.65), and EMA50 (6,281.95). JCI's movement also remained above the dynamic support area and uptrend line, so strengthening momentum remained intact. The RSI (14) stood at 61.46, still above the 50 level and indicating fairly strong bullish momentum, though the index is starting to approach the resistance area. If JCI can break through the 6,490 – 6,500 area, the chance of strengthening could potentially continue toward 6,672 – 6,723 as the next resistance target. Conversely, should it fail to break through that resistance, JCI could potentially undergo a pullback toward 6,377, then 6,347 (EMA10), with stronger support at 6,283 – 6,282 (EMA20 – EMA50). As long as JCI holds above the 6,347 – 6,377 area, the technical bias remains bullish, so the strategy can focus on buy on weakness while watching for rebound confirmation in the support area, while a break below the EMA10 should be watched as an early indication of weakening momentum.