KSI Morning Report 29 September 2026

September 29, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 29 September 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. GLOBAL INFLATION RISKS RISE WITH OIL & YIELDS, WHILE INDONESIA FACES RUPIAH PRESSURE AND SEEKS STRONGER PRIVATE INVESTMENT US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Monday (28/09/26), weighed down by high oil prices, continued selling in the US bond market, and pressure on artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks after OpenAI temporarily halted training of its latest AI model. Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92% to 26,820.38, S&P 500 weakened 0.77% to 7,683.69, while Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.67% to 51,481.51. INDONESIA: Bank Indonesia (BI) projects Indonesia's economic growth in 2027 to be in the range of 5.2%-6%, up from the 2026 projection of 4.9%-5.7%. BI Governor Destry Damayanti said household consumption and investment would be important components in maintaining economic growth momentum. Gross fixed capital formation (PMTB), or investment, in 2027 is projected to grow 6.3%-7.1%, higher than the 2026 projection of 5.7%-6.5%. However, BI noted that current investment still largely comes from government-related projects or activities, so increasing the contribution of private investment, including investment sourced from BPI Danantara, remains a challenge going forward. In addition, exports of goods and services are projected to grow 5.9%-6.7%, while imports are projected to grow 6.4%-7.2% in 2027. - In addition, the government discussed the financial condition of BPJS Kesehatan, which is still facing deficit pressure. President Prabowo Subianto requested an update on BPJS Kesehatan's financial condition for 2027 and subsequent years to maintain the sustainability of the National Health Insurance (JKN) program. The government had previously approved budget support of Rp20 trillion to help improve BPJS Kesehatan's financial condition. However, the additional funding is expected not only to resolve financial issues but also to be followed by increased payments to hospitals and improved service quality for participants, including reducing long queues and difficulties in accessing services for JKN participants. JCI closed down 1.51% at 6,147.86 in Monday's (28/09) trading. Pressure was also reflected in foreign investor activity, which recorded a net sell of Rp259.83 billion in the regular market, bringing the accumulated YTD net sell to Rp105.09 trillion. Amid this pressure, foreign fund flows mainly went into BBRI, AMMN, EMAS, BBCA, and DSSA, while the largest foreign selling was recorded in BMRI, TLKM, TINS, ANTM, and MDKA. In the currency market, the Rupiah weakened past Rp17,950 per US Dollar, reversing its earlier strength as the US Dollar strengthened, which also weighed on market sentiment. Technically, JCI broke down through the gap/support area. This condition indicates selling pressure remains dominant and short-term momentum tends to be bearish after JCI failed to move back above the dynamic resistance area. RSI (14) fell to 32.92, nearing oversold territory, indicating fairly strong bearish momentum while at the same time opening the possibility of a technical rebound if selling pressure begins to ease. If JCI fails to hold above the 6,112 – 6,148 area, weakness could continue toward 6,033.38 (FR 61.80%) and 5,987. Conversely, if a rebound occurs, JCI needs to break back through 6,186, then 6,227 – 6,241. KIWOOM RESEARCH still recommends waiting and seeing for now while selling pressure continues.