KSI Morning Report 30 September 2026
September 30, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 30 September 2026
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DOVISH FED EASES GLOBAL PRESSURE, INDONESIA TARGETS 6% GROWTH
US MARKET: Wall Street closed slightly lower on Tuesday (29/09/26), although it managed to recover from the session's lows after pressure in the Treasury bond market eased following dovish comments from one Federal Reserve official. S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7,670.84, Nasdaq Composite weakened 0.09% to 26,797.54, while Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected 0.26% to 51,349.92. On the other hand, artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks managed to close higher after media reports said Anthropic was preparing for an IPO targeting a valuation of more than US$2 trillion.
INDONESIA: The government and the House of Representatives (DPR) officially approved the 2027 State Budget (APBN) into law with an expansive fiscal policy design. The budget deficit is set at 2.4% of GDP, with state revenue targeted to reach Rp3,435.1 trillion and state spending at Rp4,106.3 trillion. The government is targeting economic growth of 6%, inflation of 2.5%, and a Rupiah exchange rate of around Rp17,500 per US Dollar. A number of priority budgets have also been prepared, including Rp824 trillion for education, Rp539.7 trillion for social protection, Rp195.3 trillion for food security, and Rp735 trillion for transfers to the regions.
- In addition, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is promoting the downstream processing of low-calorie coal into methanol, which can later be used in the energy supply chain, including as a fuel-blending material. The government has started a pilot project in East Kutai, East Kalimantan, and plans to replicate the development in a number of other regions, including South Sumatra, which has fairly large low-calorie coal reserves. Methanol produced from coal processing will also be allocated as a supporting material for the production of Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) through blending with palm oil, to support the government's mandatory biodiesel program.
JCI closed down 0.43% at 6,121.70. Throughout Tuesday's (29/09) trading, foreign investors booked a net sell in the regular market of Rp536.70 billion, with accumulated YTD net sell reaching Rp105.63 trillion. Foreign fund flows mainly came in through BBRI, TPIA, BRMS, EMAS, and DEWA, while the largest foreign selling pressure was recorded in BMRI, TLKM, BBCA, PTBA, and ADRO. The Rupiah strengthened slightly to the 17,947 level after briefly trading above the 18,000 level. Technically, after touching its support, JCI managed a technical rebound. RSI (14) fell to 31, nearing oversold territory, indicating fairly strong bearish momentum while at the same time reopening the possibility of a technical rebound if selling pressure begins to ease. If JCI weakens again, the decline could once again test 6,033.38 (FR 61.80%) and 5,987. Conversely, if it manages to strengthen and break out above the 6,150 level, it could return to the 6,186 level, then 6,227 – 6,241. KIWOOM RESEARCH sees an opportunity for buy on weakness and remains cautious should pressure continue.