KSI Morning Report 02 October 2026

October 02, 2026
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KIWOOM Morning Equity – 02 October 2026 This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. YIELDS AND OIL PRICES RISE, INDONESIA SEES ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND ACCELERATES MARKETPLACE TAX US MARKET: Wall Street closed slightly higher on Thursday (01/10/26). S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,670.36, while Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average each finished slightly above flat at 26,871.60 and 50,927.33, respectively. S&P 500's gain mainly reflected the market's ability to absorb pressure from rising oil prices and bond market volatility. Micron Technology shares also reversed higher after posting better-than-expected performance and guidance. INDONESIA: A number of Indonesian economic indicators showed improvement at the end of September 2026. The manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory at 52, from 49 in the previous month, while September inflation was recorded at 3.28% and remains within the government's target of 2.5% ±1%. On the external sector, the trade balance once again recorded a surplus of US$3.5 billion. The government assessed that these developments indicate the beginning of an economic recovery momentum at the close of Q3 2026. - In addition, the Directorate General of Taxes (DJP) accelerated the implementation of Article 22 Income Tax collection via marketplaces starting 01 October 2026, from the previously scheduled 01 November 2026. Shopee, Lazada, Tokopedia, and Blibli have begun to be appointed as tax collectors at a rate of 0.5% of domestic sellers' turnover, excluding VAT and Luxury Goods Sales Tax. Individual traders with turnover of up to Rp500 million per year are exempted as long as they submit a statement letter to the marketplace. A number of transactions are also exempted, including the sale of phone credit and SIM cards, trading of certain jewelry gold or precious stones, and the transfer of rights over land and/or buildings. The Ministry of Finance is also finalizing the realization of the state budget (APBN) through the end of September 2026 and is targeting its release to the public next week or before 11 October 2026. JCI closed down 1.02% at 6,009.50 in Thursday's (01/10) trading. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp240.43 billion in the regular market, bringing accumulated YTD net sell to Rp107.42 trillion. The largest foreign fund inflows went into DSSA, ENRG, TLKM, ASII, and TINS, while the largest selling pressure occurred in BMRI, GOTO, BBRI, MDKA, and BBCA. In addition, the Rupiah weakened to around Rp17,960 per US Dollar, pressured by a stronger DXY and rising US Treasury yields. Domestic pressure also stemmed from September inflation rising to 3.28% YoY and high oil prices increasing import costs and fiscal pressure. Technically, JCI remains in a downtrend, with RSI (14) falling to 27.4 and entering oversold territory. If it weakens again, JCI could test support at 5,985 – 5,973, and a break of that level could open room for a decline toward 5,898. Conversely, a rebound could bring JCI to test 6,029, then 6,095 and 6,111 – 6,121. KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors to remain cautious while selling pressure continues.