KSI Morning Report 19 October 2026
October 19, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 19 October 2026
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GLOBAL MARKET PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS JCI PLUNGES AMID MSCI RISKS AND RUPIAH WEAKNESS
US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Friday (16/10/26), led by a 2.15% plunge in Nasdaq Composite, while S&P 500 fell 1.09% and Dow Jones Industrial Average weakened 175 points. Selling in semiconductor stocks continued into an eighth consecutive session, marking the sector's longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis. CoreWeave shares plunged 11.9% and recorded a weekly loss of 23.7%, while Nvidia fell 1.4%, Micron weakened 5.6%, and AMD corrected 5.9%. Pressure also hit Tesla, which fell 2.1%, and SpaceX, down 1.7%, amid speculation over a potential merger between the two companies. On a weekly basis, S&P 500 corrected 2%, Nasdaq tumbled 5%, while Dow Jones still strengthened 156 points.
INDONESIA: Bank Indonesia (BI) is pushing to strengthen international cooperation through the expanded use of Local Currency Transactions (LCT) to reduce dependence on third-country currencies and minimize the impact of global exchange rate volatility. This was conveyed by BI Governor Destry Damayanti during the IMF–World Bank and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings on 12–18 October 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand. BI also supports the development of cross-border payments, cross-border QR, and the use of QRIS by younger generations and MSMEs to improve transaction efficiency, expand financial inclusion, and strengthen access to formal financing. At the meetings, member countries also discussed strengthening global macroeconomic and financial system stability, labor market modernization, the use of AI and digitalization, and the management of debt risk and global economic imbalances.
- In addition, the possibility of a Bank Indonesia (BI-Rate) hike at the October 2026 Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) remains open. BCA Chief Economist David Sumual estimates BI could raise rates by 25–50 basis points by year-end, particularly if pressure on the rupiah increases further. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, high global oil prices, and the risk of a weakening exchange rate are key factors to watch, as they could increase imported inflation and add pressure to domestic price stability. This condition puts BI in a position of having to maintain rupiah stability while also preserving national economic growth momentum.
JCI closed plunging 11.57% to the 5,185.11 level in Friday's (16/10/26) trading, amid heavy selling pressure from foreign investors, who recorded a net sell of Rp3.40 trillion in the regular market and Rp3.35 trillion across all markets. On a YTD basis, accumulated foreign net sell reached Rp114.16 trillion. The stocks most heavily sold by foreign investors included BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, ANTM, TLKM, ADMR, BBTN, BTPS, TPIA, and ASII. In contrast, foreign fund flows went into GOTO, INDF, EMAS, BRPT, ENRG, AADI, DSSA, BBNI, ERAA, and ISAT. Pressure on the market also increased after MSCI questioned Indonesia's status as an emerging market, highlighting structural issues in the domestic stock market and the possibility of reclassification to standalone market status, which risks triggering larger capital outflows. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah weakened past Rp18,050 per US Dollar, its weakest level since early August, amid growing investor concern over the outlook for foreign capital flows and perceptions of risk in Indonesia's financial market. Technically, JCI moved sharply lower and closed at the 5,185.10 level, trading well below the EMA10, EMA20, and EMA50, indicating the bearish trend remains strong. RSI (14) fell to the 16.85 level, indicating oversold conditions, which opens the possibility of a technical rebound. As long as it can break back through the 5,326 – 5,332 area, JCI has the chance of a rebound toward resistance at 5,631. However, if selling pressure continues and JCI breaks through support at 4,999, the index could potentially continue weakening toward the 4,471 area based on the 161.80% Fibonacci projection. Investors are advised to remain cautious, apply a selective buy on weakness strategy, and wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before accumulating more aggressively.