KSI Morning Report 05 November 2026
November 05, 2026
KIWOOM Morning Equity – 05 November 2026
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GLOBAL SENTIMENT IMPROVES ON US–IRAN PEACE HOPES, INDONESIA FACES RISING ENERGY SUBSIDIES AND WEAKER GOLD DEMAND
US MARKET: Wall Street closed sharply higher in Wednesday's trading (11/04/26). S&P 500 index rose 1.6%, Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,569 points to its highest level in two months, while Nasdaq Composite strengthened 0.9%. Financial sector stocks led the gains, with JPMorgan rising 4.2% and Berkshire Hathaway strengthening 3.9%. Large-cap technology stocks also recorded gains, led by Microsoft, which surged 6.7%, Alphabet rose 3.2%, and Meta added 1.4%. In contrast, semiconductor manufacturer stocks weakened due to rising concerns over the regulatory outlook for the AI industry.
INDONESIA: High gold prices are starting to weigh on domestic demand. Based on a World Gold Council (WGC) report, Indonesia's jewelry gold consumption in Q3-2026 fell 18% YoY to 3.1 tons, while demand for gold bars and coins declined 25% YoY to 13.3 tons. Nevertheless, demand for gold bars and coins throughout January–September 2026 still grew 17% YoY to 51 tons. On the supply side, Indonesia's gold mine production actually increased 21% YoY, supported by higher production at Amman Resources' Batu Hijau, the start of operations at Merdeka Copper's Pani mine, and the recovery of Grasberg production.
- On the fiscal side, the government's 2026 subsidy budget increased to Rp500 trillion from the initial state budget (APBN) ceiling of Rp318 trillion, triggered by rising global crude oil prices and the weakening of the Rupiah. The average Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) through the end of October reached US$93/barrel, while the Rupiah exchange rate was in the range of Rp17,508/US$. The government ensures that the payment of energy subsidies and compensation to Pertamina and PLN will continue until the end of the year. The Ministry of Finance emphasized that the increased spending still keeps the APBN deficit below 3% of GDP. The additional subsidy is considered able to hold back inflationary pressure and maintain public purchasing power, although it could narrow the government's fiscal space.
JCI closed 0.32% higher at 4,919.77 in Wednesday's trading (11/04/26). Foreign investors recorded net buy of Rp264.64 billion in the regular market and Rp257.94 billion across all markets. However, accumulated foreign net sell on a YTD basis still reached Rp127.24 trillion. The largest foreign net buying was recorded in BBCA, ANTM, ASII, TINS, TLKM, BRIS, BBRI, MDKA, EMAS, and BREN. Conversely, the largest net selling occurred in BMRI, TPIA, GOTO, UNTR, BRPT, AMMN, ITMG, BBNI, AMRT, and ADRO. In the foreign exchange market, the Rupiah moved in the range of Rp18,130 per US Dollar and has not yet been able to strengthen to Rp18,000 even though the US Dollar index weakened to its lowest level in five weeks. Technically, JCI managed to rebound after briefly moving volatile and weak. With a scenario of holding above 4,907 again, JCI could continue to the nearest resistance at 4,980 / 5,098 / 5,143. If JCI break down the 4,907 level again, JCI could continue toward the nearest support at 4,824 / 4,800 / 4,600 and 4,456 (FR 161.80%). Investors are advised to remain cautious and wait for clear signal confirmation.