International News 20 November 2025
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Gold Rises as Risk Aversion Grows Ahead of Key U.S. Data
Gold prices climbed on Wednesday (Nov 19, 2025) as broader risk-off sentiment boosted demand for safe-haven assets, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and the delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Spot gold rose 0.5% to US$4,089.59 per ounce, and December futures gained 0.6% to US$4,090.30. The upcoming payrolls data—postponed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown—is expected to show a modest 50,000 job increase in September. Meanwhile, U.S. unemployment claims hit a two-month high in mid-October, adding uncertainty to the labor market outlook. Analysts say gold’s upward momentum faces some restraint from a stronger U.S. dollar and lingering doubts about the timing of the Fed’s next rate cut. Still, elevated risk aversion has kept gold well supported as global equities slide, with the S&P 500 logging four straight days of losses amid concerns over stretched AI stock valuations. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps last month, but Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution over further easing due to limited data. Traders now assign roughly a 49% probability of another rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
Oil Prices Slip Despite Volatility as Markets Weigh Russia Sanctions and Fed Leadership Shift
Oil prices ended lower after a volatile session on Tuesday as traders assessed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian crude flows and digested comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who revealed that his administration has begun interviewing candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair. Brent for January 2026 settled up 1.07% at US$64.89 per barrel, while WTI for December 2025 rose 1.39% to US$60.74. WTI briefly climbed above US$60.90 following Trump’s remarks, which investors interpreted as a potential shift toward a more dovish Fed leadership—an outlook that typically boosts risk appetite and supports oil demand. Market sentiment remains mixed as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil begin to squeeze Russian oil revenues and potentially curb exports over time. Analysts note that the market is balancing these supply risks against a growing global surplus. Additional pressure comes from geopolitical tensions, including threats of broader secondary sanctions against countries trading with Russia, and ongoing disruptions at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which handles about 2% of global supply. Despite short-term fluctuations, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to trend lower into 2026 due to a supply glut, though Brent could climb back above US$70 by 2026–2027 if Russian production declines more sharply. Investors now await U.S. inventory data from the API for fresh direction.
UK Inflation Eases but Remains Stubbornly High
UK consumer inflation (CPI) eased to 3.6% in October from 3.8% in September—its first decline since May and in line with expectations from the Bank of England (BoE) and Reuters economists. The drop comes as a relief after September’s reading failed to hit the BoE’s earlier 4% projection. Despite this moderation, the BoE paused its quarterly rate-cut cycle this month, while Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signaled that the upcoming 26 November budget will avoid tax or spending measures that could intensify price pressures. Economists warn, however, that last year’s policy moves—such as minimum wage increases, higher employer taxes, and additional levies—could still add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation. The UK continues to record the highest inflation among advanced economies. The BoE’s early-November forecasts show inflation likely staying above the 2% target until mid-2027, driven by rapid wage growth that exceeds productivity gains, keeping underlying price pressures elevated.
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/inflasi-inggris-mulai-turun-ke-level-36-di-oktober-2025