International News 21 November 2025
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China Holds Lending Rates Steady for Sixth Month as Policy Caution Persists
China kept its benchmark loan prime rates unchanged in November for a sixth consecutive month, aligning with market expectations and reflecting the central bank’s cautious stance amid slowing economic momentum and easing U.S.–China trade tensions. The one-year LPR remained at 3.0% and the five-year rate, a key reference for mortgages, stayed at 3.5%. With Washington and Beijing reaching a limited trade agreement that reduced some U.S. tariffs, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sees less urgency for aggressive monetary easing—even as October data on exports, retail sales, and credit growth point to a weakening economy. The reemergence of the bank’s “cross-cyclical adjustment” framework signals a preference for stability over large-scale stimulus. Despite steady rates, China’s real economy faces persistent headwinds. New bank lending plunged sharply in October as households and businesses refrained from taking on fresh debt amid economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks. Exports contracted and retail sales growth slowed further, underscoring weak domestic demand. Economists note that PBOC appears willing to tolerate softer credit growth for now, delaying rather than abandoning future easing. Goldman Sachs now expects a “dual cut”—in policy rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR)—to occur in Q1 2026, pushed back from prior expectations for action this quarter
Nvidia Signals Strong Q4 Outlook as AI Demand Surges
Nvidia projected fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$65 billion (±2%), surpassing Wall Street’s US$61.66 billion estimate and boosting confidence that demand for its AI chips remains robust despite growing concerns of an artificial-intelligence bubble. The company’s data-center business—its primary growth engine—generated US$51.2 billion in the latest quarter, beating analyst expectations of US$48.62 billion. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted explosive demand for Blackwell GPUs and rapid expansion of the global AI ecosystem. Shares of broader AI-linked companies rose more than 4% in after-hours trading, reversing some of Nvidia’s 8% decline in November after a massive 1,200% rally over the last three years. However, analysts warn that growth risks remain, including power, land, and network bottlenecks that limit how quickly hyperscalers can deploy the GPUs they are buying. Nvidia’s customer concentration has risen sharply, with four clients accounting for 61% of Q3 sales, and the company has doubled its chip-rental commitments to US$26 billion as cloud providers struggle to lease excess capacity. Still, long-term demand appears strong: Nvidia reportedly holds US$500 billion in advanced-chip orders through 2026, while Big Tech continues unprecedented AI-infrastructure spending—Microsoft alone spent nearly US$35 billion in capex last quarter. Nvidia expects adjusted gross margins around 75% in Q4, above market expectations, reinforcing its position at the center of the global AI build-out.
Oil Prices Slip Over 1% as Markets Weigh Russia Sanctions and Fed Chair Uncertainty
Crude oil prices ended lower after a volatile trading session as traders assessed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows and reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that interviews for the next Federal Reserve chair had begun. Brent crude for January 2026 delivery rose 1.07% to $64.89 per barrel, while WTI crude for December 2025 delivery gained 1.39% to $60.74 per barrel, briefly touching an intraday high after Trump’s remarks. Analysts noted that expectations of a more dovish Fed under Trump boosted risk sentiment, as lower borrowing costs typically support oil demand. Market volatility was further driven by geopolitical risks and supply disruptions. U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have already pressured Russia’s oil revenue and are expected to restrict exports over time. A temporary shutdown of Russia’s Novorossiysk port—responsible with CPC terminals for about 2.2 million bpd, or 2% of global supply—previously pushed prices higher before operations resumed. Meanwhile, Trump signaled support for secondary sanctions targeting any country trading with Russia, potentially including Iran, adding to supply uncertainty. Despite these risks, Goldman Sachs forecasts oil prices will trend lower into 2026 due to persistent global oversupply, though Brent could exceed $70 in 2026–2027 if Russian output declines sharply. Investors now await U.S. API inventory data for further direction.